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Infonetics: optical transceiver market forecast to double in 2011

14 November 2011
 
The global market for 10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceivers is forecast to grow to $2.6 billion by 2015, more than doubling from 2010, when the market was worth $1.2 billion, according to the latest market report from Infonetics Research.
 
The report tracks 10 Gbps, 40 Gbps, and 100 Gbps optical transceivers and transponders sold into the optical transport, enterprise, and carrier routing and switching markets.  Optical transceiver revenue is already up 35% in the first half of 2011 compared to the first half of 2010.
 
Tunable XFP optical transceivers were the real stars of the show in the first half of 2011, notes Andrew Schmitt, directing analyst for optical at Infonetics Research. Shipments of tunable XFPs were up 59% over the previous six-month period, putting the category on track to increase 200% in 2011 over 2010.  “Multiple suppliers are now in the marketplace and that appears to be the catalyst customers needed to begin adoption,” said Schmitt. 
 
Also of note were very strong shipment trends in 100GBase-LR4 modules, demonstrating the widespread prototyping and trial activity now underway among 100 Gbps vendors and service providers. 
 
Infonetics says that, starting in 2013, growth in the 100G market will outpace growth in the 40G market as multiple suppliers start production.  “Pricing for 100G products is expected to compare favourably to 40G by 2013 and at these prices, customers show a preference for 100G technology,” explained Schmitt.
 
Network equipment manufacturers developing their own 100G solutions are best positioned to benefit from this growth; they control 70%+ of the optical equipment market share, leaving long-reach transponder vendors to fight for the remaining 30% of the market, according to Infonetics.
 
By 2015, the 40G and 100G segments of the market together will make up 40% of total optical transceiver revenue.
 
By Pauline Rigby